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Cotton Demand Stable And Good, International Trade Volume Is Expected To Increase
In 2021 / 22, Xinjiang's production costs increased, the early low temperature affected the nutritional growth, the recent extreme high temperature accelerated the reproductive growth to make up for the late development in the early stage, and part of the land was transferred to grain production, and the total output decreased; The soil moisture in the west of Texas, the main producing area of the United States, has been improved and the yield has been increased. Drought and hurricane will still affect the production area in the future. India's sowing rate has accelerated. USDA is expected to produce 2599 (+ 110000) tons in 21 / 22 in July.
Reserve cotton from July 5 to September 30, 600, 000 tons of cotton will be shipped out, and the machine will be selected. In the third week of July, all transactions were completed, and the bottom selling price in the fourth week was 16171 (+ 182) yuan / ton.
Clothing consumption in the United States improved in June; Domestic consumption improved in June, and the UK returned to the level of 2019 in May. Other developed countries have the potential for consumption recovery, but they are still greatly affected by the epidemic. USDA estimated consumption of 2682 (+ 160000 tons) in 21 / 22 in June.
China and the United States are expected to make contact on the follow-up of the first agreement, and China's implementation progress is slow. US Deputy Secretary of state Sherman visited Tianjin from July 25 to 26. China and the United States may plan to give priority to economic development. Biden continued Trump's policy and strengthened restrictions on China, mainly in science and technology and climate issues. However, Biden's policy turned to "vertical and horizontal", but the harvest was not good. China EU agreement suspended.
The interest rate of 10-year US Treasury bonds is running at a low level, and the Fed is inclined to increase interest rates. The people's Bank of China cut the reserve rate. The ECB plans to maintain its existing support policy. The CPI of the United States in June was 5.4%, with the potential risk of imported inflation.
The United States has completed 187 million doses of vaccination, China has completed 1.508 billion doses, and Europe has received 349 million doses. The progress of vaccination in developing countries has been slower. Recently, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has rebounded, and outbreaks have occurred in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, Myanmar, Mongolia and other countries around China. On July 15, who announced that the outbreak of new crown pneumonia continued to constitute a "public health emergency of international concern".
The United States may reduce fiscal policy and plan to raise taxes on the rich to fill the gap.
Xinjiang cotton ban has become one of the means of the United States to China. If Europe joins in, the impact on Xinjiang cotton consumption will be expanded. The new Xinjiang cotton ban this week is mainly aimed at photovoltaic. The upgrading of domestic brands is accelerating, and the stock markets of some famous brands such as "Tebu", "Li Ning" and "361 °" have soared.
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