Industrial Cluster: Pay Attention To The Changes Of Xinjiang Cotton Market This Year

Since the beginning of this year, Xinjiang cotton market has implemented the policy of military local integration development. The whole Xinjiang region has liberalized the military local cotton market to achieve mutual recognition of seed cotton. In addition to the investment of a large number of large-scale cotton picking machinery, Xinjiang cotton market has undergone many major changes in the new season, which will have a profound impact on the formation, rise and fall of future market mainstream prices, and the determination of price focus.

The proportion of machine harvest is large, the time of seed cotton listing is concentrated, and the speed of listing is accelerated. Although the cotton picking in the north and south of Xinjiang was at the peak at that time, there was still a large number of seed cotton in the hands of farmers who did not sell, some ginning plants had already bought seed cotton in the yard, and "egg roll cotton" was stacked like hills.

As of November 4, the purchase of seed cotton in our ginning plant had basically ended, more than 10 days earlier than last year. This year, the probability of the number of machine picked cotton in Xinjiang is more than 90%. Because of the high speed and efficiency of machine picking, the speed of new seed cotton coming into the market this year has been greatly improved. In the short term, a large number of seed cotton will be transported to various ginning plants. Due to the timely preparation of funds, the preparation of acquisition plans and measures close to the market reality, and the implementation of the measures, some ginning plants, when their purchase prices were recognized by the surrounding farmers and the corps subordinate farms, their total purchase of seed cotton reached a high level in the short term, with a large increase compared with the same period last year.

In previous years, there were few large-scale cotton pickers in Xinjiang, and many of them carried out mobile operations, picking cotton in the north and then in the south. This year, however, this phenomenon has decreased a lot. The main reason is that purchasing cotton pickers for cotton picking business has been profitable in recent years. Many people have purchased cotton pickers. On the one hand, it has increased the proportion of cotton pickers in Xinjiang, and on the other hand, it has solved the problem that the number of cotton pickers is insufficient in previous years.

It is understood that in recent years, due to the increasing proportion of cotton machine picking in Xinjiang, the listing time of cotton in the north and south of Xinjiang has become more and more closely linked. This year, the new season seed cotton in the two places is basically listed synchronously and centrally, and the purchase price is relatively close.

Good effect of military ground integration The seed cotton resources are scattered. In October this year, eight departments including the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Market Supervision and Administration Bureau, the Development and Reform Commission, the Department of Finance, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Market Supervision and Administration issued the Implementation Plan of Xinjiang Cotton Target Price Subsidy and Quality Linked Policy (2024-2025) to unify the military and local cotton quality subsidy standards and quality traceability system, Achieve mutual recognition of military and civilian cotton. Because the policy is conducive to the free circulation of cotton nearby, the majority of cotton farmers and the main bodies under the Corps are very active in selling newly produced seed cotton, improving the vitality of Xinjiang cotton market and promoting the integrated development of the cotton market in Xinjiang.

This year, ginning plants in various regions of Xinjiang accounted for a large number of newly produced seed cotton purchased nearby, and ginning plants in some remote areas can also purchase a certain amount of seed cotton. The first reason is that under the general environment of military land integration, the circulation of newly produced seed cotton is very smooth. As long as the price is appropriate, cotton farmers can sell nearby, saving freight. Second, the ginning mills' purchase this year was relatively rational, and there was no phenomenon of raising prices to rush to collect. In the case of little difference in the listed purchase prices, each ginning mill could purchase a certain amount of seed cotton. The distribution of newly produced seed cotton resources was relatively scattered, and the concentration was lower than that of last year.

On the whole, the seed cotton purchase cost of ginning plants in Xinjiang has been settled this year, and then it will enter the peak season of lint processing and sales.

Seed cotton mainstream price concentration The difference in lint cost between the south and the north of Xinjiang has narrowed. Due to the fast picking of seed cotton in the new season, the active selling of farmers, and the rapid acquisition of ginning plants, the fluctuation of mainstream prices in the market during the acquisition period is limited. The purchase price of seed cotton in most production areas fluctuates around 6.3 yuan/kg. At present, the moisture of seed cotton has increased due to the cooling and precipitation in many places in Xinjiang. In addition to the second harvest, seed cotton has increased in the market, but the purchase price of ginning plant seed cotton is still relatively stable. In general, the mainstream price of Xinjiang seed cotton market this year is relatively concentrated, and the raw material procurement costs of ginning plants are relatively similar.

The opening price, unit yield and total output of the newly produced seed cotton this year, as well as the lint processing cost, are all in line with the market expectations. In addition, the international cotton price fluctuation is relatively small during the picking of domestic cotton, making the market operate more smoothly.

There have been many major changes in Xinjiang cotton market in the new season this year, which is conducive to the early determination of ginning costs of ginning plants. This year, the lint market price range is 13900~14600 yuan/ton. It is expected that under the condition of continuous growth of lint processing volume and listing volume, both futures and spot prices will be subject to pressure from the supply side, but without major fluctuations in the international market, The market will fluctuate around 14000 yuan/ton.